MUD\WTR

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Brand health · Functional coffee category · fielded July 2026

Chosen on purpose. Drunk by accident.

What this is. Zappi asked 400 Americans what they think of us and ten competitors. It follows the How Brands Grow framework, so it measures what Byron Sharp says drives growth. Who knows you. Who would consider you. Who buys you. What you are known for.

Who they asked. People who don’t reject coffee alternatives. Mushroom coffee, functional drinks, adaptogenic teas. Not our customer list. Half men, half women, spread across the country. One wave, so there is no before-and-after here. Every number means “of Americans open to this category,” not “of Americans.”

The short version. We convert about as well as Ryze. We are just smaller. And the buyers we win don’t drink us much, because we are known for things this category doesn’t buy on.

01

Reach is the volume gap, not persuasion

Ryze is known by 39.5% of the category. We are at 22.7%. But of the people who know us, 46.9% have bought. Ryze’s number is 46.4%. Below awareness, nothing is broken.

Solid
n=400
02

Hard to fall for, easy to keep, rarely drunk

Buyers say the product works. 92.7% of them say it meets their needs. But people who only know us like us less than almost anyone: 2nd-least liked of nine. And of the buyers we win, 12.9% drink us daily. Last of nine.

Directional
n=42–91
03

We are known for what the category does not buy on

Rank every brand on whether it is known for what buyers say drives their choice. We come last of nine. We own “innovative”, “grounded energy” and “ethical”. Buyers rank those 12th, 9th and 11th out of 13.

Solid
n=400
04

Taste is the opening nobody has taken

Taste is the #1 reason people pick a brand here. It is our weakest association of thirteen. It is also the weakest for every brand we looked at. The thing buyers care most about is sitting unclaimed.

Solid
n=400
05

The category runs on habit, and shops where we aren’t

76% say they stick with what works instead of thinking about it. 69% only switch when something goes wrong. The biggest place they shop is Walmart, at 39%, and we are not there. Read the sample caveat in §2 before sizing that.

Solid
n=400

Seven actions follow in §7. Method, base sizes, and the weak data we kept out of the findings, are in the appendix.

01 — Where we stand

Two ways of being known

Everything in this report sits downstream of these two charts, so start here.

Prompted awareness is recognition. You show someone a list and ask which brands they have heard of. Top-of-mind awareness is memory. You ask what comes to mind with no list at all, and code what people type. The second is much harder to earn and much more valuable, because it is the shortlist people actually shop from.

Zappi codes top-of-mind answers from free text and only reports brands that clear a volume threshold. Five of the nine never clear it, which is why they are marked not coded rather than zero. Absence of coding is not absence of awareness, but it does mean almost nobody typed their name.

What we see
  • Ryze leads both, and by more on the harder one. 39.5% recognise it against our 22.7%. 11.9% name it unprompted against our 7.0%. Recognition gap 1.7×, memory gap 1.7×.
  • We are 4th on recognition and 2nd on memory. Bulletproof matches us exactly on recognition (22.7%) but never clears the coding threshold on top-of-mind. Everyday Dose is slightly ahead of us on recognition and behind on memory.
  • Four Sigmatic punches above its size. 14.7% recognition, 6.8% top-of-mind. It converts recognition into memory better than anyone here, including Ryze.
Takeaway

We are a strong second on the measure that matters and a distant fourth on the measure that is easier to buy. That is an unusual shape, and it is the reason Finding 03 matters: we have earned real memory, and we have filled it with the wrong things.

02 — How to read this report

One trap, and three levels of confidence

Three things will mislead you if you read the raw Zappi dashboard. Two minutes here saves you from all of them.

The trap: “amongst brand aware” flatters small brands

Consideration and appeal only get asked of people who already know the brand. That sounds harmless. It isn’t.

Say five people have heard of a brand and four of them bought it. It scores 80%. A brand millions of people know can never do that, because its “aware” group includes everyone who shrugged.

So the number doesn’t tell you how good a brand is. It tells you how unusual the people who know it are.

The trap, made visible

Each dot is a brand. Awareness across the category against consideration among those aware.
MUD\WTR Other brands Fitted trend
So what: never rank brands on an “amongst aware” metric. The better known a brand is, the worse it scores.

Across the brands shown, the two move in opposite directions at r = −0.62.

The fix is simple. Stop dividing by “people who know the brand” and divide by all 400. Multiply awareness by consideration and you get a plainer number: how many people in the market are open to you. Do that and the relationship flips to +0.99. Brands more people know are brands more people would buy. Nothing was corrected. Only the denominator changed.

The same answers, on a fair denominator

Consideration reach = awareness × consideration among aware. Comparable across brands of any size.
So what: on a fair base MUD\WTR is 3rd. On the dashboard’s base we look 9th. Same responses, honest denominator.

Three levels of confidence, marked on every chart

The whole study is 400 people. Sub-questions cut that down fast. Every chart carries one of these badges, and anything below “solid” draws its error bars right on the marks so you can see the doubt instead of reading past it.

Who actually takes these surveys

This is the sharpest question anyone has asked of this data. Online panels don’t look like the country. They are built from people willing to answer questions for a small payment, which skews suburban and rural, less coastal, and less affluent than the customer base of a premium DTC brand.

There is a tell inside the data. Only 14.6% of these respondents say they have ever bought functional coffee from a brand’s own website. Across every channel mention in the survey, brand websites account for 8%.

That is not what this category looks like. Ryze, Everyday Dose and we all built our businesses direct-to-consumer. A sample that under-counts DTC buyers this badly is almost certainly over-counting mass-retail shoppers.

So Walmart’s 39.1% is right in direction and probably too big in size. What survives the doubt: this category shops shelves far more than our own customers do, and it runs on habit. What doesn’t survive: any precise number for the Walmart opportunity.

Two ways to settle it. Ask Zappi for the region and income breakdown, which isn’t in these exports. Then hold their channel mix against our own Shopify and retail split. If our business is 85% direct and the survey says the category is 15% direct, one of those is wrong about who the category is, and it matters which.

DIRTEA and Spacegoods are excluded by default. Both are UK brands with almost no US business, so their scores describe a few dozen unusual people rather than a market — detail in the appendix. Use the filter at the top of the page to add them back, or to narrow to any set of brands you want to compare.

FINDING 01Reach, not persuasion

The gap to Ryze opens at awareness and never closes

What this measures
The full purchase funnel — who has heard of a brand, who is open to it, who has bought it, and who treats it as their default.
How it was asked
Prompted awareness, purchase and first choice were each asked of all 400 respondents, so brands are directly comparable at every stage.
Reliability

Whole sample, n=400. Safe to rank and act on.

Step conversion — how well each brand moves people down the funnel

Aware→bought and bought→first choice. Higher is better at both steps.
So what: our conversion is mid-pack, not broken. Four Sigmatic is the brand to study on trial.

Who remembers seeing advertising at all

Prompted ad awareness — “have you seen advertising for this brand?” — on all 400. Whiskers are 95% intervals.
So what: Ryze’s ad recall is 1.9× ours — but per point of awareness we are remembered just as well. This is a spend gap, not a creative-effectiveness gap.

Where Ryze out-reaches us, channel by channel

Share of all 400 who recall seeing each brand in that channel. Pale = Ryze, solid = MUD\WTR.
Ryze MUD\WTR
So what: the gap is concentrated in paid mass channels — TV and streaming 2.3×, Facebook 1.6×, influencers 1.6× — and closes almost entirely in retail (1.2×) and audio (1.0×).
What we see
  • Ryze is known by 1.7 times as many people as we are. 39.5% against 22.7% on prompted awareness. 11.9% against 7.0% top-of-mind.
  • It converts no better than we do. 46.4% of people who know Ryze have bought it. Our number is 46.9%. Its consideration rate among the aware is 64.1%, a hair below our 64.7%. Ryze wins by being known, not by being more convincing.
  • Four Sigmatic is the brand to study on trial. It turns 62.8% of its awareness into purchase. We manage 46.9%, on a bigger aware base. Bulletproof gets 56.8%. There is headroom here. Ryze just isn’t the brand that shows it to us.
  • Ryze’s first choice (21.1%) is 3.2× ours (6.5%). Roughly one in five category shoppers treats Ryze as their automatic go-to versus one in fifteen for us — the most useful stat in the deck for a retailer conversation.
  • Ryze’s advertising is remembered by 22.5% of the category against our 12.1%. But scaled to how many people know each brand, recall is near-identical (57% for Ryze, 53% for us, 53% for Everyday Dose). Our creative is landing; there is simply less of it. Laird (38%) and Rasa (36%) are the brands with a genuine memorability problem.
Takeaway

Fund reach. The gap is 17 points of awareness, and mass channels are where that gets won. But don’t call the funnel healthy. Closing even half the gap to Bulletproof on aware-to-bought would add volume for less than awareness costs.

FINDING 02Loyal but occasional

Our buyers commit to us, then don’t drink us

What this measures
Three things: whether the product satisfies the people who buy it, how much everyone who knows us likes us, and how often our buyers actually drink us.
How it was asked
Appeal — “how much do you like this brand?” — asked of everyone aware. Meets-needs and frequency asked of each brand’s own buyers.
Reliability

Sub-sample. Read the direction, not the decimal.

Mental availability against how much people like us

Horizontal: share of all category associations. Vertical: appeal, with 95% confidence intervals.
MUD\WTR Other brands
So what: we hold plenty of mental space and convert little of it into warmth.

Does the product deliver? Asked of people who have actually bought it

Top-2-box on “meets my needs”. Whiskers are 95% intervals; bases are the brand’s own buyers, 22–73.
So what: once someone buys us, the product works — 92.7%, squarely mid-pack. Our problem is not the product.

How often each brand’s own buyers drink it

Share of a brand’s buyers using it once a day. Whiskers are 95% intervals; bases are 22–73.
So what: we are last of nine on daily use. For a brand sold as a morning coffee replacement, that is the finding with the clearest revenue consequence.
What we see
  • Among people who have bought us, the product delivers. 92.7% say it meets their needs — mid-pack, statistically level with Everyday Dose (93.3%), Ryze (91.7%) and Four Sigmatic (94.2%). And 61.6% name us their first choice, 3rd of nine. Nothing here says we have a product problem.
  • Among people who merely know us, we are the least liked. Appeal 58.3%, 2nd-lowest of nine, with only Laird below. Both our size-peers beat us — Everyday Dose 64.4%, Ryze 63.7% — so the small-base effect from §2 cannot explain it: Ryze has the largest aware base in the study and still scores higher. (Brit’s argument, and it corrected mine.)
  • Those two facts pin the leak precisely. Appeal is measured before trial, meets-needs after. So people who know us are not drawn in, and people who get in are satisfied and stay. That is exactly why our aware→bought rate is an unremarkable 46.9% while Four Sigmatic manages 62.8%. We are hard to fall for and easy to keep.
  • And the ones we keep drink us least often. Only 12.9% use us daily — last of all nine brands. Everyday Dose reaches 23.4%, Bulletproof 24.2%, Ryze 18.1%. We over-index on “2–3 times a week” at 30.6%.
  • Two honest limits. Daily use rests on 42 buyers, so the 10.5-point gap to Everyday Dose does not clear its interval (±16) — ranking last of nine is the signal, not the precise gap. And the category itself is occasional: across all 400 respondents only 6.3% drink anything in this category daily and 36.5% bought none of it at all. Daily consumption is a minority behaviour here, so read our position as competitive weakness, not as a failure to hit an absolute standard.
Why, probably
  • We built our brand on subtraction. Look at what carries our meaning: natural and organic first, then grounded energy, then innovation, then ethics. “Helps me reduce my caffeine intake” is our 8th. Taste is our 13th. Two of our strongest associations are about giving something up rather than enjoying something. A brand known for what it takes away is harder to like than one known for what it gives. That is the leading explanation for the appeal score, and this survey cannot prove it. Message testing can.
  • We may be positioned for the wrong cup. Grounded energy and caffeine reduction are afternoon and replacement framings. Coffee owns the morning, and the morning is where daily habits live. If we are the alternative cup rather than the first cup, competing for a smaller occasion explains last place on daily use without anything being wrong with the product. The profile above is consistent with that.
Takeaway

Two different jobs, and the survey separates them cleanly. Before trial, the problem is desire, not proof — we lead with efficacy and score last on liking, so more functional claims will not fix it. That is what Findings 03 and 04 are about. After trial, the problem is frequency, and it is the most commercially valuable line in this report: a point of daily-use conversion compounds on customers we have already paid to acquire. Occasion cues, morning-ritual creative, subscription cadence, flavour variety so the third cup of the week is not a chore. Validate the size of it against Recharge and Shopify before funding — at n=42 the survey can raise this but not size it.

FINDING 03Aimed at the wrong demand

We are the worst-aimed brand in the category

What this measures
Whether what a brand is known for lines up with what buyers say makes them choose. Category Entry Points are the need-moments behind a purchase.
How it was asked
Respondents picked which attributes drive their choice, then named which brands they associate with each. Both on the full 400.
Reliability

Whole sample, n=400. Safe to rank and act on.

Demand alignment — is a brand known for what the category actually buys on?

Rank correlation between an attribute’s importance to the category and its rank in that brand’s own profile. −1 to +1.
So what: we are the only brand pointed away from demand. Fixing it needs no new product — only a change in what we choose to say.

Where the mismatch sits, attribute by attribute

Left: rank in category importance. Right: rank inside MUD\WTR’s own associations. Both 1 (highest) to 13.
Category importance rank MUD\WTR association rank
So what: taste is the category’s #1 driver and our #13 association — a 12-place mismatch, the widest of any attribute.
What we see
  • MUD\WTR scores −0.18: last of nine, and the only brand in negative territory. Every competitor is at least weakly aimed at what buyers say they want. We are aimed away from it.
  • We over-own the bottom of the category’s list. Our strongest associations are natural/organic, grounded energy, innovative and ethical. The category ranks the last three 9th, 12th and 11th of 13.
  • We under-own the top. Taste (importance #1) is our 13th association. Trust (#6) is our 12th. Value (#7) our 10th. Results (#8) our 11th.
  • The counter-reading, so nobody over-reads this: Rasa and Four Sigmatic top this chart while sitting near the bottom on awareness and purchase. Good aim does not sell product on its own — it tells you where your voice is pointed, not how loud it is. Aim matters because we are about to spend on volume.
Takeaway

Stop putting paid creative behind innovation and mission. We already lead the category on both, in territory buyers rank near the bottom. That budget is buying ground nobody is shopping for. Move the mission work to owned and organic, where it deepens loyalty instead of chasing trial.

This is what makes Finding 01 worth spending on. Buy reach while still pointed the wrong way and you just buy more of the wrong association.

FINDING 04The unclaimed position

Taste is what the category buys on, and nobody owns it

What this measures
Which need-moments matter most to category buyers, plotted against how strongly each brand is linked to them.
How it was asked
Importance and brand association both asked of all 400. Quadrant dividers sit at the median of each axis.
Reliability

Whole sample, n=400. Safe to rank and act on.

MUD\WTR — category demand against our mental ownership

Each dot is one of 13 attributes. Top-right is where a brand should live: high demand, high ownership.
So what: natural/organic is the one place we genuinely occupy the top-right. Taste, trust, gut health and immunity are all demand we are not claiming.

The same map for the three brands you’re watching

Read these for shape, not height — each panel is scaled to its own brand’s range, because absolute ownership differs too much for a shared axis (Ryze sits around 24–30% on every attribute, Everyday Dose 13–15%, Four Sigmatic 8–10%). Those levels are in each subhead.

The four attributes we’re weakest on

Between them these carry category importance ranks 1, 6, 7 and 8. Each panel shows what share of that attribute’s associations in the whole category belongs to each brand.

One objection worth killing: “we’re not a coffee”

It is true, and it is the most interesting structural fact about this competitive set. Ryze, Everyday Dose, Four Sigmatic, Bulletproof, Javvy and Vitacup are all coffee. We are not. Buyers were asked about “mushroom and functional coffee beverages,” so they judged us inside a frame we don’t sit in.

The tempting conclusion is that our taste score is unfair. People expected coffee, got cacao and chai, and marked us down. The data doesn’t support it.

Rasa is also a coffee alternative with no coffee in it. Taste is Rasa’s 4th-strongest association. Ours is 13th of 13, and we are the only brand in the study where taste finishes last. Being a non-coffee brand does not push taste to the bottom. Rasa proves it is possible to be an alternative and still be known as a nice thing to drink. Our taste position is ours, not the category’s.

What the frame really tells us is commercial rather than defensive. Buyers already think about this category as coffee, and we are about to sell coffee. The new product enters a frame where we already hold 22.7% awareness and the 3rd-largest share of category associations. We are not starting cold, and it removes the one objection no message can answer: that we are not what you were looking for.

What we see
  • Taste is the category’s #1 driver at 39.9% — and the lowest-ranked association for every brand we studied, including Ryze. Ryze owns the most of it in absolute terms (21.6%) but still under-allocates it relative to everything else it says. The thing buyers care most about is genuinely unclaimed.
  • Trust is our sharpest competitive deficit: we hold 10.0% of the category’s trust associations against Ryze’s 23.5%, and sit 4th — behind Everyday Dose and Bulletproof, brands we match on awareness.
  • Natural and organic is the one thing we do own — our strongest association and 2nd in the category. Worth defending, but reinforcing it will not change our position, because we already hold it.
  • A nuance on value: it is our 10th association but we are 3rd in the category on it. The weakness there is in what we say, not what buyers believe.
Takeaway

Pick taste. Commit to it for a year. Hero assets, packaging, landing pages, product innovation, subject lines.

Launch the coffee product on taste, not on function. It is the one product we have that competes inside the frame buyers are already using, and taste is the axis they judge on. Leading it with mushrooms and adaptogens would repeat the mistake Finding 03 describes.

It is the category’s top driver, our worst association, and nobody else owns it. You almost never get all three at once.

Pair it with proof on trust: third-party testing, visible dosages, review volume. Taste earns the trial and the second cup. Trust removes the reason to say no. Neither needs a new product.

FINDING 05Habit and availability

This category runs on habit, and shops where we aren’t

What this measures
How deliberately people choose in this category, and which retailers they actually buy it from.
How it was asked
Agreement with three attitude statements on a 1–5 scale, and a multi-select on channels used. Both on all 400 respondents.
Reliability

Whole sample, n=400. Safe to rank and act on.

How people choose in this category

Share agreeing (top 2 of a 5-point scale) with each statement.
So what: three-quarters of this category actively avoids thinking about the choice. That rewards being available and familiar, not being persuasive.

Where the category actually buys

Share of all 400 who have bought functional coffee from each channel. Multi-select.
So what: Walmart is the single biggest channel in the category at 39.1% — and we are not in it. Brand websites account for just 14.6%.
What we see
  • 75.9% agree they “stick with what works rather than thinking too much about it”, and 69.2% only change brands if they have a problem with their usual one. This is a low-deliberation, habit-driven category.
  • 73.3% choose on value for money — which reframes our price barrier. It is not that we are expensive in isolation; it is that value is the lens almost everyone applies.
  • The category is a mass-retail category. Walmart 39.1%, Amazon 28.4%, Target 24.0%, Whole Foods 18.7%. Brand websites are only 14.6% — we are a direct-to-consumer brand competing in a category that mostly shops shelves.
  • Put those together and incumbency is a moat. If three-quarters of buyers avoid re-deciding, Ryze’s 21.1% first-choice share isn’t just a lead. It is a position that defends itself. Every month we are off that shelf, habit hardens around whoever is on it.
  • Discount the channel sizes, not the conclusion. This panel probably over-represents mass-retail shoppers: only 8% of its channel mentions are brand websites, in a category built on DTC (§2). Walmart is the biggest channel here. It may not be 39% big. The attitude numbers are less exposed to that skew, because habit is habit whoever you ask.
Takeaway

This changes the order of everything above it. In a category where people don’t deliberate, being available beats being persuasive. That is the How Brands Grow argument showing up in our own data.

Distribution is probably worth more than any message change on this page, and it is the one lever creative cannot substitute for. It also has a clock on it. Habit compounds for whoever is already on the shelf, so the gap to Ryze gets harder to close the longer we wait.

Size it against our own numbers before committing capital. The survey says the category shops mass retail. It is not a reliable guide to how much.

07 — What to do

Seven moves, in priority order

  1. Get into Walmart and Target. — Finding 05 Walmart is the biggest channel in the category and we are not in it — Brit spotted that gap before this export existed. Where 76% of buyers avoid re-deciding, shelf presence is what builds habit, and creative cannot substitute for it. Slowest thing on this list to execute, which is why it starts now. Test the size before you commit capital: this panel probably over-counts mass-retail shoppers (§2), so check it against our own channel mix.
  2. Make taste the lead message everywhere. — Finding 04 Top purchase driver in the category. Our weakest association. Claimed by nobody. Hero assets, above-the-fold landing pages, packaging, subject lines. Costs media weight, not product work, which makes it the fastest move here.
  3. Fund reach in mass channels — with the new message, not the old one. — Findings 01 + 03 The volume gap is 17 points of awareness and conversion already matches Ryze, so reach is the first-order fix. Sequence it after the message change: adding reach while still pointed at innovation and mission buys more of an association the category ranks 12th of 13.
  4. Launch the coffee product as coffee, and lead with taste. — Findings 02 + 04 Every serious competitor here is coffee and we are not, which means buyers judge us inside a frame we don’t occupy. The coffee product fixes that, and it arrives with 22.7% awareness and the 3rd-largest share of category associations already banked. Sell it on how it tastes. Selling it on function walks straight back into Finding 03.
  5. Attack daily use as a revenue line, not a brand metric. — Finding 02 Last of nine on daily consumption while 3rd on loyalty. Occasion cues, morning-ritual creative, subscription cadence, flavour variety. Validate against Recharge and Shopify first — the survey raises this at n=42, it cannot size it.
  6. Buy trust with proof, not tone. — Finding 04 10.0% of category trust associations against Ryze’s 23.5%, 4th place, on solid data. Third-party testing, visible dosages, review volume above the fold. Trust ranks 6th in importance — real demand, not hygiene.
  7. Stop paid spend on innovation and purpose messaging. — Finding 03 Ranked 12th and 13th of 13 by the category, and we are already 2nd and 2nd on both. Move it to owned and organic, where it deepens loyalty instead of chasing trial.

Two things this report cannot settle, listed so nobody acts on them prematurely: whether price is genuinely our biggest barrier (n=32 — test with Intelligems before touching price architecture), and which brands we actually lose customers to (n=26). Both are in the appendix as hypotheses.

08 — Appendix

Method, base sizes, and the data we chose not to lead with

Tier C: real questions, bases too small to answer them

Barriers and substitution are asked only of a brand’s own rejectors or loyalists, which cuts the base to a few dozen people. Both are shown with error bars so the uncertainty is visible. Treat everything here as a hypothesis to test.

Why people who reject MUD\WTR say no

Multi-select, so shares do not sum to 100. Whiskers are 95% intervals on a base of 32.
So what: price and comprehension, not credibility — we score lowest of all brands on “skeptical the benefits aren’t real” (3.2% versus Ryze’s 20.1%, a gap that does clear the interval). Test price with Intelligems rather than acting on 32 people.
Where MUD\WTR loyalists go

base: 26 people — indicative only

Whose loyalists name MUD\WTR

bases: 4–84 people — indicative only

The asymmetry worth testing: 22.2% of our loyalists name Ryze as their fallback, while only 12.1% of Ryze loyalists name us. If real, we leak to Ryze about twice as fast as it leaks to us. Four Sigmatic (32.4%) and Vitacup (22.8%) loyalists name us most often — the two conquest pools where we already have permission.

Why DIRTEA and Spacegoods are excluded by default

DIRTEA takes 89% of its traffic from the UK and 1.25% from the US — about 1,800 US visits a month — and returns no US Google Trends signal at all. Spacegoods is 75% UK, 5.3% US. If almost nobody in America can buy a brand, the few respondents who know it are not a small version of the market; they are an unusual group who travelled or went looking. Of course a high share of them bought and liked it. That is what seeking something out looks like, not desirability.

What DIRTEA scores in a US survey

Every figure exactly as Zappi reported it. Nothing here is adjusted.
So what: a brand with no US distribution ranks #1 in the category on both consideration and appeal. That is the clearest possible warning about among-aware metrics.

Independent check: US Google Trends

A yes/no presence test, not a size comparison.

Of the eleven brands, DIRTEA is the only one Google returns no US number for — its American search volume sits below Google’s reporting threshold, verified on two separate queries.

So what: an outside source with no connection to the survey agrees DIRTEA effectively is not a US brand.

Does excluding them change the conclusions?

MUD\WTR’s rank across all 11 brands versus the 9 US-primary brands.
So what: no. Still 3rd on mental availability, still 2nd-lowest on appeal, still last on demand alignment. The §2 trap also holds at −0.62 without them, versus −0.70 with.

Two analyses, read side by side

Brit got to this data first and wrote it up in Notion. She and I worked separately, which makes the overlap worth something: where two people reach the same conclusion from the same numbers by different routes, the conclusion is probably not an artifact of either method.

Where we landed in the same place, independently.

Where she was ahead of me.

Where we disagree.

One flag for her. Her retailer argument uses Ryze’s first choice at 21.1%, which is more than 3× ours. The direction is safe. The number isn’t: 21.1% exceeds Ryze’s own reported purchase of 18.4%, which is impossible, so those two questions must use different reference periods. Use “more than three times” and don’t put the decimal in a retailer deck.

Method

Known anomalies

What’s missing, and what I’d change next time